Monday, June 09, 2008

Philosophy? Economics? Philonomics?

In philosophy it's a matter of opinion.

In Economics it's a matter of opinion except you lose money defending them.

Each side of an argument in philosophy is heavily camped.

Each side of an argument in economics is heavily camped, except that "He who is solvent will have the last laugh" Nothing says you are right like clocking 20% gains year after year even if you are wrong. It's like writing a crappy thesis and still being quoted by your peers. Except that you can't write a thesis that is crappy and still get quoted.

You can get a Phd in philosophy chasing a theory that is fundamentally flawed. Just like you can create an economic model that is fundamentally flawed that will earn you a Phd in economics. And even a Nobel Prize (Think options pricing model)

Although there is a distinct difference between wiping out a trillion brain cells with convulated arguments that no one other than other philosophers (pretend to) understand

and

wiping a trillion dollars of market value with a convulated pricing model that no one but other economists (pretend to) understand.

If people started treating economic debates with the same level of respect they deal with philosophical debates, which is not very much, the world would be a better place to live in. This is because economics like philosophy (and some say religion) is man made and thus subject to subjective subjection. Fads, irrationality and cult-like behaviors do apply.

So the next time you cling on to an economist's forecast like it is the gospel truth, do remember that even the gospel truth is sometimes open to interpretation.

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