Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Bill Miller, should we write him off?

The bear market is officially here. Which means i'm officially excited. Not that I haven't been excited for a while now. I've been excited since I started my portfolio in october at perhaps one of the worse possible times. Thank God I don't rely on market timing cause I definitely suck at it. It's time to accumulate but where?

After googling for ideas I realized that I would really like to own a piece of google, at whatever price it was trading at. I also vaguely remembered reading in a book about google's success about how fund manager Bill Miller was one of the first few to notice google's potential. Now that's a fund manager I want on my team.

But alas. After beating the market for 15 years in a row. He's been down lately an to a huge extent. In fact his recent bets were major failures. Bear stearns. Oops. Property. Oops. Missing out on commodities surge. Oops. There are people who are saying his success was a fluke, a lucky streak.

Not everyone is lucky. How many lazy people do you know get lucky and successful. .

I'm betting on his comeback. I hope i'm right. But even if i'm wrong. His fund is already down 30% so I'm buying at a discount and since it's only a small part of my portfolio, I'm sleeping easy at night.

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